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Will the Housing Market Stay Hot in 2022?
Why Waiting To Sell Your House Could Cost You a Small Fortune
Many homeowners who plan to sell in 2022 may think the wise thing to do is to wait for the spring buying market since historically about 40 percent of home sales occur between April and July. However, this year’s expected to be much different than the norm. Here are five reasons to list your house now rather than waiting until the spring.
1. Buyers Are Looking Right Now, and They’re Ready To Purchase
The ShowingTime Showing Index reports data from more than six million property showings scheduled across the country each month. In other words, it’s a gauge of how many buyers are out looking at homes at the current time.
The latest index, which covers November showings, reveals that buyers are still very active in the market. Comparing this November’s numbers to previous years, this graph shows that the index is higher than last year and much higher than the three years prior to the pandemic. Clearly, there’s an influx of buyers searching for your home.
Also, at this time of year, only those purchasers who are serious about buying a home will be in the market. You and your loved ones won’t be inconvenienced by casual searchers. Freddie Mac addresses this in a recent blog:
“The buyers who are willing to house hunt in a winter market, when there are fewer options, are typically more serious. Plus, year-end bonuses and overtime payouts give people more purchasing power.”
And that theory is proving to be true right now based on the number of buyers who have put a home under contract to purchase. The National Association of Realtors (NAR) publishes a monthly Pending Home Sales Indexwhich measures housing contract activity. It’s based on signed real estate contracts for existing single-family homes, condos, and co-ops. The latest index shows:
“…housing demand continues to be high. . . . Homes placed on the market for sale go from ‘listed status’ to ‘under contract’ in approximately 18 days.”
Comparing the index to previous Novembers, while it’s slightly below November 2020 (when sales were pushed to later in the year because of the pandemic), it’s well above the previous three years.
The takeaway for you: There are purchasers in the market, and they’re ready and willing to buy.
2. Other Sellers Plan To List Earlier This Year
The law of supply and demand tells us that if you want the best price possible and to negotiate your ideal contract terms, put your house on the market when there’s strong demand and less competition.
A recent study by realtor.com reveals that, unlike in previous years, sellers plan to list their homes this winter instead of waiting until spring or summer. The study shows that 65% of sellers who plan to sell in 2022 have either already listed their home (19%) or are planning to put it on the market this winter.
Again, if you’re looking for the best price and the ability to best negotiate the other terms of the sale of your house, listing before this competition hits the market makes sense.
3. Newly Constructed Homes Will Be Your Competition in the Spring
In 2020, there were over 979,000 new single-family housing units authorized by building permits. Many of those homes have yet to be built because of labor shortages and supply chain bottlenecks brought on by the pandemic. They will, however, be completed in 2022. That will create additional competition when you sell your house. Beating these newly constructed homes to the market is something you should consider to ensure your house gets as much attention from interested buyers as possible.
4. There Will Never Be a Better Time To Move-Up
If you’re moving into a larger, more expensive home, consider doing it now. Prices are projected to appreciate by approximately 5% over the next 12 months. That means it will cost you more (both in down payment and mortgage payment) if you wait. You can also lock in your 30-year housing expense with a mortgage rate in the low 3’s right now. If you’re thinking of selling in 2022, you may want to do it now instead of waiting, as mortgage rates are forecast to rise throughout the year.
5. It May Be Time for You To Make a Change
Consider why you’re thinking of selling in the first place and determine whether it’s worth waiting. Is waiting more important than being closer to your loved ones now? Is waiting more important than your health? Is waiting more important than having the space you truly need?
Only you know the answers to those questions. Take time to think about your goals and priorities as we move into 2022 and consider what’s most important to act on now.
Bottom Line
If you’ve been debating whether or not to sell your house and are curious about market conditions in your area, let’s talk so you have expert advice on the best time to put your house on the market. I am here to help!
Expert Insights on the 2022 Housing Market
As we move into 2022, both buyers and sellers are wondering, what’s next? Will there be more homes available to buy? Will prices keep climbing? How high will mortgage rates go? For the answer to those questions and more, we turn to the experts. Here’s a look at what they say we can expect in 2022.
Odeta Kushi, Deputy Chief Economist, First American:
“Consensus forecasts put rates at about 3.7% by the end of next year. So, that’s still historically low, but certainly higher than they are today.”
Danielle Hale, Chief Economist, realtor.com:
“Affordability will increasingly be a challenge as interest rates and prices rise, but remote work may expand search areas and enable younger buyers to find their first homes sooner than they might have otherwise. And with more than 45 million millennials within the prime first-time buying ages of 26-35 heading into 2022, we expect the market to remain competitive.”
Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist, National Association of Realtors (NAR):
“With more housing inventory to hit the market, the intense multiple offers will start to ease. Home prices will continue to rise but at a slower pace.”
George Ratiu, Manager of Economic Research, realtor.com:
“We also expect a growing number of homeowners to bring properties to market, taking some pressure off high prices and offering buyers more options.”
Mark Fleming, Chief Economist, First American:
“Strong demographic demand will continue to act as the wind in the housing market’s sails.”
What Does This Mean for Buyers?
Hope is on the horizon for 2022. You should see your options grow as more homes are listed and some of the peak intensity of buyer competition starts to ease. Just remember, rising rates and prices are a great motivator for you to find the home of your dreams sooner rather than later so you can buy while today’s affordability is still in your favor.
What Does This Mean for Sellers?
Make no mistake – this sellers’ market will remain in 2022 as home prices are projected to continue climbing, just at a more moderate pace. Selling your house while buyer demand is so high will truly put you in the driver’s seat. But don’t wait too long. With more listings projected to become available, your ideal window of opportunity to stand out from the crowd won’t last forever. Work with an agent who knows your local market and current inventory conditions to ensure you have the support you need to make an educated and informed decision about selling in the coming year.
Bottom Line
Will we experience median sale price increases in RI to the tune of 18% in 2022? Unlikely. Will prices continue to remain high? Very likely. We simply do not have enough inventory to bridge the divide between supply and ever-increasing demand.
If you’re thinking of buying or selling, 2022 may be your year. Let’s connect to discuss your goals and the unique opportunities you have in today’s housing market. I am here to help!
The Average Homeowner Gained $56,700 in Home Equity over the Past Year!
When you think of homeownership, what’s the first thing that comes to mind? Chances are you might focus on the non-financial benefits, like the security or stability a home provides. But what about equity? While it can be overlooked, a homeowner’s equity helps build long-term wealth over time. Here’s a look at what equity is and why it matters.
For a homeowner, your equity is the current value of your home minus what you owe on the loan. So, as home values climb, your equity does too. That’s exactly what’s happening today. There aren’t enough homes on the market to meet buyer demand, so bidding wars and multiple offers are driving prices up. That’s because people are willing to pay more to buy a home. Right now, this low supply and high demand are giving current homeowners a significant equity boost.
Dr. Frank Nothaft, Chief Economist at CoreLogic, explains it like this:
“Home price growth is the principal driver of home equity creation. The CoreLogic Home Price Index reported home prices were up 17.7% for the past 12 months ending September, spurring the record gains in home equity wealth.”
To find out just how much rising home values have impacted equity, we turn to the latest Homeowner Equity Insights from CoreLogic. According to that report, the average homeowner’s equity has grown by $56,700 over the last 12 months.
Curious how your state stacks up? Check out the map below to find out the average equity gain for your area.
How Rising Equity Impacts You
If you’re already a homeowner, equity not only builds your wealth, it also opens doors for you to achieve your goals. It works like this: when you sell your house, the equity you built up comes back to you in the sale. You can use those proceeds to fuel your next move, especially if you’ve decided your needs have changed and you’re looking for something new.
If you’re thinking about becoming a homeowner, understanding the importance of equity can help you realize why homeownership is a worthwhile goal. It builds your wealth and gives you peace of mind that your investment is a wise one, not just from a lifestyle perspective, but from a financial one too.
Bottom Line
Whether you’re a current homeowner or you’re ready to become one, it’s important to know how equity works and why it matters. If this inspires you to make a move, let’s connect to explore your options and find out what steps you need to take next. Call, text or email me. I am here to help!
Year end market news and views……
The temps outside are chilly and the real estate market remains brisk!
The median listing price grew 9.6% compared to this time last year. The price growth is due to the imbalance of the market with demand far exceeding supply. In fact, new listings are down 6% over this time last year. We have less than half of the number of homes for sale than we did two years ago. Add in the incredible demand the pandemic fueled ( work from home/changing home needs) & the millennial effect; the largest buying demographic hitting their 30s and needing larger homes, and the supply shortage to support new home builds and “Houston, we have a problem” exists. The problem is a lack of inventory. Renting is not any “easier” with rents rising 18.5% and expected to rise 7% more in 2022.
It’s a challenging time in real estate and I am here to help. Stay healthy and stay well!
https://www.realtor.com/research/weekly-housing-trends-view-data-week-dec-11-2021/?utm_source=Realtor.com+Economic+Research+Mailing+List&utm_campaign=9e0640524c-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2020_04_26_01_53_COPY_01&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_5fdb87a164-9e0640524c-105925945If You Think the Housing Market Will Slow This Winter, Think Again.
From the opportunity to take advantage of today’s low mortgage rates to changing homeowner needs, Americans have more motivation than ever to buy a home. According to the experts, buyers are making moves right now, creating an unseasonably strong housing market for this time of year.
As we wrap up the fall season and move into the winter months, here’s a look at what several industry leaders have to say about the continued momentum in the current market, and what it means as we head into the early part of next year.
Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist, National Association of Realtors (NAR)
“This solid buying is a testament to demand still being relatively high, as it is occurring during a time when inventory is still markedly low. The notable gain in October assures that total existing-home sales in 2021 will exceed 6 million, which will shape up to be the best performance in 15 years.”
Odeta Kushi, Deputy Chief Economist, First American
“So far in November, purchase applications point to another strong month in sales. Still low rates and demographic demand support this strength, even as affordability and inventory headwinds remain.”
The M Report
“The demand for housing in the United States has reached a fever pitch, a trend that opposes the norm of this time of the year when the market cools as the winter months set in.”
Mark Fleming, Chief Economist, First American
“Strong demographic demand will continue to act as the wind in the housing market’s sails.”
What does this mean for the winter housing market?
Buyers are actively in the market, and they’re competing for homes to purchase. With the momentum coming out of this fall, all signs point to the winter housing market picking up steam, making it much busier than in a more typical year. And as we’ve seen in so many ways, 2020 and 2021 were anything but typical in real estate. It looks like 2022 may be joining that list before we know it.
Bottom Line
This winter will be a busy one in real estate in the Ocean State. Whether you’re thinking of buying a home, selling your house, or both – let’s connect to determine if this winter is your best time to make a move too. I am here to help!
Home Sales About To Surge? We May See a Winter Like Never Before.
Like most industries, residential real estate has a seasonality to it. For example, toy stores sell more toys in October, November, and December than they do in any other three-month span throughout the year. More cars are sold in the U.S. during the second quarter (April, May, and June) than in any other quarter of the year.
Real estate is very similar. The number of homes sold in the spring is almost always much greater than at any other time of the year. It’s even labeled as the spring buying season. Historically, the number of buyers and listings for sale significantly increase in the spring and remains strong throughout the summer. Once fall sets in, the number of buyers and sellers typically drops off.
Last year, however, that seasonality didn’t happen. The outbreak of the virus and subsequent slowing of the economy limited sales during the spring market. These sales were pushed back later in the year, and last fall and winter saw a dramatic increase in home sales over previous years. The only thing that held the market back was the extremely limited supply of homes for sale.
What About This Winter?
Some experts thought we’d return to the industry’s normal seasonality this winter with both the number of purchasers and houses available for sale falling off. However, data now shows that neither of those situations will likely occur. Buyer demand is still extremely strong, and it appears we may soon see a somewhat uncharacteristic increase in the number of homes coming to the market.
Buyer Demand Remains Strong
The latest Showing Index from ShowingTime, which tracks the average number of monthly showings on available homes, indicates buyer activity was slightly lower than at the same time last year but much higher than any of the three previous years (see chart below):
A report from realtor.com confirms buying activity remains strong in the existing home sales market:
“New housing data shows 2021’s feverish home sales pace broke a yearly record in October, . . . with last month marking the eighth straight month of buyers snatching up homes more quickly than the fastest pace in previous years. . . .”
Buyer activity for newly constructed homes is also very strong. Ali Wolf, Chief Economist for Zonda, recently reported that Stuart Miller, the Executive Chairman of Lennar, one of the nation’s largest home builders, said this about demand:
“There is still a great deal of demand at our sales centers with people lining up and not enough supply.”
The only question heading into this winter is whether the number of listings available could come close to meeting this buyer demand. We may have just received the answer to that question.
Sellers Are About To List – Right Now
Instead of waiting for the normal spring buying market, new research indicates that homeowners thinking about selling are about to put their homes on the market this winter.
Speaking to the release of a report on this recent research, George Ratiu, Manager of Economic Research for realtor.com, said:
“The pandemic has delayed plans for many Americans, and homeowners looking to move on to the next stage of life are no exception. Recent survey data suggests the majority of prospective sellers are actively preparing to enter the market this winter.”
Here are some highlights in the report:
Of homeowners planning to enter the market in the next year:
- 65% – Have just listed (19%) or plan to list this winter
- 93% – Have already taken steps toward listing their home, including working with an agent (28%)
- 36% – Have researched the value of their home and others in their neighborhood
- 36% – Have started making repairs or decluttering
The report also discusses the reasons sellers want to move:
- 33% – Have realized they want different home features
- 37% – Say their home no longer meets their family’s needs
- 32% – Want to move closer to friends and family
- 23% – Are looking for a home office
Data shows buyer demand remains unusually strong going into this winter. Research indicates the supply of inventory is about to increase. This could be a winter real estate market like never before. My own personal business data supports the notion! I have 3 listings already booked for an early winter release!
Bottom Line
If you’re thinking of buying or selling, now is the time to have a heart-to-heart conversation with a real estate professional like yours truly! , as things are about to change in an unexpected way.
Two Graphs That Show Why You Shouldn’t Be Upset About 3% Mortgage Rates
Yesterday while hanging up a name rider on a new listing in West Warwick ( 115 Setian Lane) a gentleman approached me and asked for my business card. He then asked me what I “thought about the market.” I asked him what interested him most about the market and our conversation commenced from there. We stood by my car for 15 mins talking about the market. “Will prices continue to increase, Sarah?” “What about rising mortgage rates?” I shared with him my thoughts on the market trends and conditions in a very engaging two-way manner. Later last night, I was on speakerphone with my husband who was in a hockey rink parking lot. A dear old “hockey dad” of a teammate of my youngest boys stopped by the car and chatted with John and myself via the speaker. About midway into the convo the friend said ” Sarah, how is business? What does the RI market look like in the days ahead?” Again, I launched in a very interesting 3-way conversation about the real estate market with our dear friend and my husband. Clearly, the housing market is on everyone’s mind much like that of the labor shortage, and rising inflation. So what do the increased interest rates mean? Let’s dive into it below!
With the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate from Freddie Mac climbing above 3%, rising rates are one of the topics dominating the discussion in the housing market today. And since experts project rates will rise further in the coming months, that conversation isn’t going away any time soon.
But as a homebuyer, what do rates above 3% really mean?
Today’s Average Mortgage Rate Still Presents Buyers with a Great Opportunity
Buyers don’t want mortgage rates to rise, as any upward movement increases your monthly mortgage payment. But it’s important to put today’s average mortgage rate into perspective. The graph below shows today’s rate in comparison to average rates over the last five years:
As the graph shows, even though today’s rate is above 3%, it’s still incredibly competitive.
But today’s rate isn’t just low when compared to the most recent years. To truly put today into perspective, let’s look at the last 50 years (see graph below):
When we look back even further, we can see that today’s rate is truly outstanding by comparison.
What Does That Mean for You?
Being upset that you missed out on sub-3% mortgage rates is understandable. But it’s important to realize, buying now still makes sense as experts project rates will continue to rise. And as rates rise, it will cost more to purchase a home.
As Mark Fleming, Chief Economist at First American, explains:
“Rising mortgage rates, all else equal, will diminish house-buying power, meaning it will cost more per month for a borrower to buy ‘their same home.’”
In other words, the longer you wait, the more it will cost you.
Bottom Line
While it’s true today’s average mortgage rate is higher than just a few months ago, 3% mortgage rates shouldn’t deter you from your homebuying goals. Historically, today’s rate is still low. And since rates are expected to continue rising, buying now could save you money in the long run. Let’s connect so you can lock in a great rate now.
“How Do Ya Like Them Apples?”
Happy Fall!! I couldn’t help but think of this well-loved quote from a great movie filmed locally in Boston- “Good Will Hunting” as I sat down to write today’s blog, on a gorgeous Halloween day here in Barrington, Rhode Island!
If you are like many in New England, you like “them apples” picked fresh from the tree!!! It’s an old standby tradition here in New England to head out to the local orchards to pick a basket or two and sample a few, of native apples grown locally. Nothing better than to spend an afternoon at a local farm on a crisp fall day, with autumn hues aglow, picking apples until you can pick no more!
Perhaps the only way to make such an outing better would be to top it off with some steaming cider doughnuts! The smell alone will have you salivating even if your belly is already filled due to “over apple consumption!!!”
Where to go to get some of Little Rhody’s best apple cider doughnuts? Click below for some insight by the beloved local food writer Gail Ciampa.
P.S. Here’s some advice from a veteran apple picker here in Rhody! Wear your sunblock, watch out for the bees and be sure to savour the beauty of our local apple trees!
Hey Sarah, What is the market going to do?
“Sarah, what do you think the market is going to do in the years ahead?” is a question I get asked regularly and often. When that question IS posed I like to ask about what part of the market the person is interested in learning more about. Often knowing where the personal interests and desires “lie” is the best means through which I can deliver the most meaningful answer. Someone who is an investor most likely views a trade of a home via a different lens than that of someone buying a home as their primary residence. My conversation with a first-time buyer will be different than that of one with a downsizer.
Where my clients are in life and what lies ahead for them plays a huge part in how we frame our conversations. Where do they see themselves in five years? Will their family be growing? Will grandkids be in the picture? How do THEY see their lives unfolding in a house they are contemplating buying. For that is usually the integral piece when throwing it into the canvas of what the macro and the micro-market will be doing. I am a bit of a nerd who loves to consume all things real estate market-related. I can tell you what the mean sales price is in your area, the average days on market, the number of spending, solds etc but at the end of the day the main concern about “how the market will be doing” is how do YOU see yourselves playing a part in that market.
Prices will remain high and supply, while increasing, will remain low for a while. Price appreciation will decelerate. It has to. But what we are dealing with right now is a disconnect between supply and demand. We were 2.5 million units short in the US BEFORE Covid started and with the shortage of supplies, lack of labor and epic high demand, fueled in large part by millennials, it will take a LONG time for supply to hover near demand. Those are the trends we are likely to see but what I like to drill down on with my clients when they get tied up in the ups and downs of the market is how do THEY envision their “best life” within our real estate market? Once we lay out the vision, we can bring the perfect and “fiscally prudent” home to fruition!!! Check out my “thoughts ” on this popular question in my video shot from the porch of my recent listing on the East Side of Providence .
Stay well and keep envisioning those dreams!
Best,
Sarah
