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Will Home Prices Fall This Year? Here’s What Experts Say.
Many people are wondering: will home prices fall this year? Whether you’re a potential homebuyer, seller, or both, the answer to this question matters for you. Let’s break down what’s happening with home prices, where experts say they’re headed, and how this impacts your homeownership goals.
What’s Happening with Home Prices?
Home prices have seen 121 consecutive months of year-over-year increases. CoreLogic says:
“Price appreciation averaged 15% for the full year of 2021, up from the 2020 full year average of 6%.”
So why are prices climbing so much? It’s because there are more buyers than there are homes for sale. This imbalance is expected to maintain that upward pressure on home prices because homes for sale are a hot commodity in today’s low-inventory housing market.
Where Do Experts Say Prices Will Go from Here?
Experts say the housing market isn’t set up for a price decline due to that ongoing imbalance between supply and demand. In the latest home price forecasts for 2022, they’re calling for ongoing appreciation throughout the year (see graph below):
While the experts are forecasting more moderate price appreciation, the 2022 projections show price gains will remain strong throughout this year. First American explains it like this:
“While house price growth is expected to moderate from the rapid pace of 2021, strong home buyer demand against a backdrop of historically tight inventory of homes for sale will likely keep appreciation positive in the coming year.”
What Does That Mean for You?
The biggest takeaway is that none of the experts are projecting depreciation. If you’re a homeowner thinking about selling, the higher price appreciation over the last two years has been great for your home’s value, but it’s also something you should factor in when planning your next steps. If you’ll also be buying a home after selling your current house, you shouldn’t wait for prices to fall. Waiting will only cost you more in the long run because climbing mortgage rates and rising home prices will have an impact on your next home purchase. Freddie Mac says:
“If you’re thinking about waiting until next year and that maybe rates are higher, but you’ll get a deal on prices – well that’s risky. It may be more advantageous to purchase this year relative to waiting until 2023 at this time.”
Bottom Line
If you’re thinking of selling to move up, you shouldn’t wait for prices to fall. Experts say prices will continue to appreciate this year. That means, if you’re ready, buying your next home before prices climb further may make the most financial sense. Demand continues to be incredibly high here in RI and until that lessens, prices will continue to escalate. Let’s connect to begin the process of selling your current home and looking for your next one before prices rise higher!
2022 Housing Market Forecast
While the Fed hopes to Calm Demand in order to Curb Inflation, the market will continue to be strong here in RI and elsewhere. I do believe the higher interest rates WILL in fact impact demand and home appreciation will lessen a bit. From all that I listen to, I believe prices will decrease @5-10% in our local RI market but not for quite some time. We simply still have incredible demand and very little supply of inventory.
![2022 Housing Market Forecast [INFOGRAPHIC] | MyKCM](https://files.mykcm.com/2022/05/05130426/20220506-MEM-1046x1885.png)
Some Highlights
- What does the rest of the year hold for the housing market? Here’s what experts have to say about what lies ahead.
- Home prices are projected to rise and so are mortgage rates. Experts are also forecasting another strong year for home sales as people move to meet their changing needs.
- Let’s connect so you can make your best move this year. I am here to help!
Today’s Home Price Appreciation Is Great News for Existing Homeowners
If you’re planning to sell your home this season, rising prices are great news for you. But it’s important to understand why prices are rising to begin with. One major factor is supply and demand.
In any industry, when there are more buyers for an item than there are of that item available, prices naturally rise. In those situations, buyers are willing to pay more to get the product or service they’re looking for when options are scarce. And that’s exactly what’s happening in the current real estate market.
Selma Hepp, Executive, Research & Insights and Deputy Chief Economist at CoreLogic, puts it like this:
“With so few homes, buyers are once again left with fierce competition that’s driving the share of homes that sold over the listing price up to 66% . . . With the continued imbalance between supply and demand, home prices are likely to have another year of strong gains and are expected to average about 10% growth for the year.”
Because it will take some time for housing supply to increase, experts believe prices will continue rising. The latest Home Price Expectations Survey forecasts what will happen with home prices over the next 5 years. As the graph below shows, while the rate of appreciation will moderate over the next few years, prices will continue rising through 2026:
What This Means When You Sell Your House
If you’re a homeowner, the projection for continued price appreciation this year opens up an opportunity to move. That’s because it may give your equity a major boost. Equity is the difference between what you owe on your house and its market value. The amount of equity you have increases as you make your monthly payments and as rising home prices drive up the market value for your home.
Growing equity is a powerful tool for homeowners. When you sell your house, the equity you’ve built comes back to you in the sale. That money could be enough to cover some (if not all) of your down payment on your next home.
Of course, if you want to know how much equity you have in your current house, it’s crucial to work with a real estate professional. They follow current market trends and can help you understand your home’s value when you’re ready to sell.
What This Means for Your Next Purchase
But today’s rising home values aren’t just good news if you’re ready to sell. Because price appreciation is forecast to continue in the years ahead, you can rest assured your next home will be an investment that should grow in value with time. That’s one of several reasons why real estate has been rated the best investment in a recent Gallup poll.
Bottom Line
If you’re weighing whether or not you should sell your house this season, know rising home values may be opening up an opportunity to use equity to fuel your move. Let’s connect so you can find out how much your home is worth and to learn more about all the benefits you have in today’s market. Here to help you strategize in today’s competitive real estate market in Rhode Island!
Where Are Mortgage Rates Headed?
A headline that hints at a favorite Dave Matthews Band song of mine ” Where are we going.”
Interest rates and the rising of them, are a hot topic amongst my buyers AND sellers these days. How will they impact affordability? Will they have an effect on the incredible home price appreciation we have been experiencing in RI? I always go back to the notion of affordability as it relates to my client’s monthly mortgage payments. That is the number we need to be cognizant of especially with home prices sky high and mortgages rates increasing. What is your debt to income ratio in light of the rate you will lock into AND that purchase price? THAT is where the focus needs to be aimed; now more than ever.
Let’s drill down on mortgage rates and where they are heading.
There’s never been a truer statement regarding forecasting mortgage rates than the one offered last year by Mark Fleming, Chief Economist at First American:
“You know, the fallacy of economic forecasting is: Don’t ever try and forecast interest rates and or, more specifically, if you’re a real estate economist mortgage rates, because you will always invariably be wrong.”
Coming into this year, most experts projected mortgage rates would gradually increase and end 2022 in the high three-percent range. It’s only April, and rates have already blown past those numbers. Freddie Mac announced last week that the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage is already at 4.72%.
Danielle Hale, Chief Economist at realtor.com, tweeted on March 31:
“Continuing on the recent trajectory, would have mortgage rates hitting 5% within a matter of weeks. . . .”
Just five days later, on April 5, the Mortgage News Daily quoted a rate of 5.02%.
No one knows how swiftly mortgage rates will rise moving forward. However, at least to this point, they haven’t significantly impacted purchaser demand. Ali Wolf, Chief Economist at Zonda, explains:
“Mortgage rates jumped much quicker and much higher than even the most aggressive forecasts called for at the end of last year, and yet housing demand appears to be holding steady.”
Through February, home prices, the number of showings, and the number of homes receiving multiple offers all saw a substantial increase. However, much of the spike in mortgage rates occurred in March. We will not know the true impact of the increase in mortgage rates until the March housing numbers become available in early May.
Rick Sharga, EVP of Market Intelligence at ATTOM Data, recently put rising rates into context:
“Historically low mortgage rates and higher wages helped offset rising home prices over the past few years, but as home prices continue to soar and interest rates approach five percent on a 30-year fixed rate loan, more consumers are going to struggle to find a property they can comfortably afford.”
While no one knows exactly where rates are headed, experts do think they’ll continue to rise in the months ahead. In the meantime, if you’re looking to buy a home, know that rising rates do have an impact. As rates rise, it’ll cost you more when you purchase a house. If you’re ready to buy, it may make sense to do so sooner rather than later.
Bottom Line
Mark Fleming got it right. Forecasting mortgage rates is an impossible task. However, it’s probably safe to assume the days of attaining a 3% mortgage rate are over. The question is whether that will soon be true for 4% rates as well. Care to drill down on what buying and selling look like for you in this ever-changing RI real estate market? Reach on out. I am here to help!
Home Price Appreciation- What does it mean to you as a homeowner and/or as a buyer?
Home Price Appreciation-
What does it mean to you as a homeowner AND what does it mean to you as a buyer?
It’s a topic of great interest in this competive real estate market where home price escalation and appreciation are at an all-time high.
The Future of Home Price Appreciation and What It Means for You
Many consumers are wondering what will happen with home values over the next few years. Some are concerned that the recent run-up in home prices will lead to a situation similar to the housing crash15 years ago.
However, experts say the market is totally different today. For example, Odeta Kushi, Deputy Chief Economist at First American, tweeted just last week on this issue:
“. . . We do need price appreciation to slow today (it’s not sustainable over the long run) but high price growth today is supported by fundamentals- short supply, lower rates & demographic demand. And we are in a much different & safer space: better credit quality, low DTI [Debt-To-Income] & tons of equity. Hence, a crash in prices is very unlikely.”
Price appreciation will slow from the double-digit levels the market has seen over the last two years. However, experts believe home values will not depreciate (where a home would lose value).
To this point, Pulsenomics just released the latest Home Price Expectation Survey – a survey of a national panel of over 100 economists, real estate experts, and investment and market strategists.It forecasts home prices will continue appreciating over the next five years. Below are the expected year-over-year rates of home price appreciation based on the average of all 100+ projections:
- 2022: 9%
- 2023: 4.74%
- 2024: 3.67%
- 2025: 3.41%
- 2026: 3.57%
Those responding to the survey believe home price appreciation will still be relatively high this year (though half of what it was last year), and then return to more normal levels over the next four years.
What Does This Mean for You as a Buyer?
With a limited supply of homes available for sale and both prices and mortgage rates increasing, it can be a challenging market to navigate as a buyer. But buying a home sooner rather than later does have its benefits. If you wait to buy, you’ll pay more in the future. However, if you buy now, you’ll actually be in the position to make future price increases work for you. Once you buy, those rising home prices will help you build your home’s value, and by extension, your own household wealth through home equity.
As an example, let’s assume you purchased a $360,000 home in January of this year (the median price according to the National Association of Realtors rounded up to the nearest $10K). If you factor in the forecast for appreciation from the Home Price Expectation Survey, you could accumulate over $96,000 in household wealth over the next five years (see graph below):
Bottom Line
If you’re trying to decide whether to buy now or wait, the key is knowing what’s expected to happen with home prices. Experts say prices will continue to climb in the years ahead, just at a slower pace. So, if you’re ready to buy, doing so now may be your best bet for your wallet. It’ll also give you the chance to use the future home price appreciation to build your own net worth through rising equity. If you want to get started, reach out to me today. I am here to help with all your RI and Southeastern MA real estate needs and dreams!
One of the four market forces we are dealing with in RI real estate ….
One topic I touched upon during a recent real estate panel detailed the market forces of 2021 which led to the extremely high price growth which are still in effect today.
The four forces are limited supply, elevated demand , demographics and low mortgage rates. Here is a national look at the supply / demand imbalance we are currently dealing with
![Supply and Demand in Today’s Market [INFOGRAPHIC] | MyKCM](https://files.mykcm.com/2022/03/03164955/20220304-MEM-1046x2586.png)
Some Highlights
- Today’s housing market is the direct result of low supply and high buyer demand. Here’s what that means for you and your plans to buy or sell.
- For buyers, expect competition, be ready to move fast, and be prepared to submit your strongest offer. For sellers, know your house will be the center of attention and that it’ll likely sell quickly and get multiple offers.
- If you’re ready to move, let’s connect to talk about our local area and how you can take advantage of today’s unprecedented housing market.
There are Almost No Houses For Sale in Rhode Island
https://www.golocalprov.com/business/there-are-almost-no-houses-to-buy-in-ri
Curious About Where Mortgage Rates Are Heading?
Almost daily, I am asked for my thoughts on where rates are heading. It could be from buyers at showings or community members at the supermarket or hockey moms and dads in the stands at the rink. With real estate such a trending topic, and my strong love for talking real estate widely known, it comes as no surprise that this is a topic people are interested in learning more about. While I don’t have a genie in a bottle what I do have is a natural curiosity and desire to always learn more about our economy, real estate, and how it affects our local markets. Studying the market daily is what I do and listening to real estate podcasts, reading blogs, our local newspaper, and following trusted and reliable news sources and influencers in real estate is how I feed the “mental engine.” Just yesterday I spent 20 mins in a driveway outside a house I had shown to buyers and their dad, discussing the very topic unpacked below and I loved every minute of it. So where are mortgage rates going???
Here is The Top Indicator if You Want To Know Where Mortgage Rates Are Heading
Mortgage rates have increased significantly since the beginning of the year. Each Thursday, Freddie Mac releases its Primary Mortgage Market Survey. According to the latest survey, the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage has risen from 3.22% at the start of the year to 3.55% as of last week. This is important to note because any increase in mortgage rates changes what a purchaser can afford. To give you an idea of how rising mortgage rates impact your purchasing power, see the table below:
How Can You Know Where Mortgage Rates Are Headed?
While it’s always difficult to know exactly where mortgage rates will go, a great indicator of where they may head is by looking at the 50-year history of the 10-year treasury yield, and then following its path. Understanding the mechanics of the treasury yield isn’t as important as knowing that there’s a correlation between how it moves and how mortgage rates follow. Here’s a graph showing that relationship over the last 50 years:
This correlation has continued into the new year. The treasury yield has started to climb, and that’s driven rates up. As of last Thursday, the treasury yield was 1.81%. That’s 1.74% below the mortgage rate reported the same day (3.55%) and is very close to the average spread we see between the two numbers (average spread is 1.7).
Where Will the Treasury Yield Head in the Future?
With this information in mind, a 10-year treasury-yield forecast would be a good indicator of where mortgage rates may be headed. The Wall Street Journal just surveyed a panel of over 75 academic, business, and financial economists asking them to forecast the treasury yield over the next few years. The consensus was that experts project the treasury yield will climb to 2.84% by the end of 2024. Based on the 50-year history of following this yield, that would likely put mortgage rates at about 4.5% in three years.
While the correlation between the 30-year fixed mortgage rate and the 10-year treasury yield is clear in the data shown above for the past 50 years, it shouldn’t be used as an exact indicator. They’re both hard to forecast, especially in this unprecedented economic time driven by a global pandemic. Yet understanding the relationship can help you get an idea of where rates may be going. It appears, based on the information we have now, that mortgage rates will continue to rise over the next few years. If that’s the case, your best bet may be to purchase a home sooner rather than later, if you’re able.
Bottom Line
Forecasting mortgage rates is very difficult. As Mark Fleming, Chief Economist at First American, once said:
“You know, the fallacy of economic forecasting is don’t ever try and forecast interest rates and or, more specifically, if you’re a real estate economist mortgage rates, because you will always invariably be wrong.”
However, if you’re either a first-time homebuyer or a current homeowner thinking of moving into a home that better fits your changing needs, understanding what’s happening with the 10-year treasury yield and mortgage rates can help you make an informed decision on the timing of your purchase. If you have questions about the market or seek input on sage steps you should take to get ready to jump into our local RI or MA market, please reach on out. I simply love to help inform, guide and champion anyone and everyone seeking to sell or buy real estate!
Great new spot in Little Rhody that YOU need to check out!
When Covid hit I brainstormed ( teacher-speak) on how I could help support my neighbors. I pondered about what I could do to show my support of small businesses and their surrounding communities in some tangible way. I was living in NH at the time, commuting back and forth to “Do” real estate in RI while residing in NH so that my son could play prep school hockey, and each day I awoke fixated on how I could help. I had heard about Parkbench for a few years and was drawn to their mission at my first introduction on LinkedIn. A group whose mission is to support communities, by highlighting small businesses and providing value via “local leaders” who lived to unite, strengthen and help others was completely right up my proverbial ally. It was expensive to do however and I simply couldn’t “afford” to do it…Or so I thought..
That notion quickly turned into how I couldn’t afford NOT to do it as I watched local businesses spin in place as our world tilted more and unraveled more and more each day. One month before my 50th birthday I called Parkbench and said ” I want to do it.” The cost became a minor detail and as the CAUSE became my purpose.
25 businesses supported later, I have never looked back.
Meeting with small business owners in my home state of RI in communities I have grown up populating and creating memories in is truly the answer to my “Why I’m here” part….. A “part” that has been called into question a bit the last few months and by golly, I swear it’s my need to help others that fuels me to emerge triumphant over seemingly insurmountable odds.
Helping others IS my why and Parkbench Barrington & Beyond and my role as a RI Realtor are the Ultimate conduit cocktail for it!!!
So please continue to support local. Shop local. Gift local. Eat local. Unite local. We all need each other more than we realize. Small businesses constitute the unique heartbeats of each and every little Rhody town. Let’s continue to fuel their fires via our support, shall we?
Check out my latest video highlighting a new addition to Bristol that is as Off the Charts high as its beautiful smoke stack….Pivotal Brewing !
https://parkbench.com/blog/pivotal-brewing-company-bars-pubs-bristol-todd-ernst
What’s Going To Happen with Home Prices This Year?
After almost two years of double-digit increases, many experts thought home price appreciation would decelerate or happen at a slower pace in the last quarter of 2021. However, the latest Home Price Insights Report from CoreLogic indicates while prices may have plateaued, appreciation has definitely not slowed. The following graph shows year-over-year appreciation throughout 2021. December data has not yet been released.
As the graph shows, appreciation has remained steady at around 18% over the last five months.
In addition, the latest S&P Case-Shiller Price Index and the FHFA Price Index show a slight deceleration from the same time last year – it’s just not at the level that was expected. However, they also both indicate there’s continued strong price growth throughout the country. FHFA reports all nine regions of the country still experienced double-digit appreciation. The Case-Shiller 20-City Index reveals all 20 metros had double-digit appreciation.
Why Haven’t We Seen the Deeper Deceleration Many Expected?
Experts had projected the supply of housing inventory would increase in the last half of 2021 and buyer demand would decrease, as it historically does later in the year. Since all pricing is subject to supply and demand, it seemed that appreciation would wane under those conditions.
Buyer demand, however, did not slow as much as expected, and the number of listings available for sale dropped instead of improved. The graph below uses data from realtor.com to show the number of available listings for sale each month, including the decline in listings at the end of the year.
Here are three reasons why the number of active listings didn’t increase as expected:
1. There hasn’t been a surge of foreclosures as the forbearance program comes to an end.
2. New construction slowed considerably because of supply chain challenges.
3. Many believed more sellers would put their houses on the market once the concerns about the pandemic began to ease. However, those concerns have not yet disappeared. A recent article published by com explains:
“Before the omicron variant of COVID-19 appeared on the scene, the 2021 housing market was rebounding healthily from previous waves of the pandemic and turned downright bullish as the end of the year approached. . . . And then the new omicron strain hit in November, followed by a December dip in new listings. Was this sudden drop due to omicron, or just the typical holiday season lull?”
No one knows for sure, but it does seem possible.
Bottom Line
Home price appreciation might slow (or decelerate) in 2022. However, based on supply and demand, you shouldn’t expect the deceleration to be swift or deep. It remains to be a very advantageous time to sell here in RI and neighboring Massachusetts. Many areas will continue to see strong combined growth in both sales volume AND sales prices. If you are contemplating a move, give me a call. I would love to come in and share my expertise and insight with you. We can formulate a winning game plan for 2022 with step-by-step guidance so that you know exactly what you need to do!
